BTTS Calculator - Both Teams to Score Probability
Calculate the probability of both teams scoring using Poisson distribution and team statistics. Find fair odds, identify value bets, and make smarter BTTS predictions.
Home Team
Average goals scored per match
Percentage of matches keeping a clean sheet
Away Team
Average goals scored per match
Percentage of matches keeping a clean sheet
Bookmaker decimal odds for BTTS Yes
Bookmaker decimal odds for BTTS No
High Scoring Match
H: 2.1 gpg, 20% CS | A: 1.8 gpg, 25% CS
Defensive Match
H: 0.8 gpg, 45% CS | A: 0.6 gpg, 50% CS
One-Sided
H: 2.5 gpg, 15% CS | A: 0.7 gpg, 55% CS
What is BTTS?
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is a popular football betting market where you bet on whether both teams will score at least one goal during the match.
How is BTTS Probability Calculated?
We use a hybrid approach combining Poisson distribution (based on goals per game) with clean sheet percentages to estimate each team's scoring probability, then multiply them together.
What is BTTS Betting?
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is one of the most popular football betting markets. You are betting on whether both teams will score at least one goal during the match. It does not matter who wins or what the final score is — the only thing that matters is whether both sides find the net.
BTTS Yes wins if both teams score at least one goal (e.g., 1-1, 2-1, 3-2). BTTS No wins if at least one team fails to score (e.g., 1-0, 0-0, 3-0). This makes it a straightforward market that is independent of the match result.
BTTS betting is particularly appealing because it removes the need to predict a winner. Even heavy underdogs regularly score goals, making BTTS markets more predictable than match result markets in many cases.
How the BTTS Calculator Works
Poisson Distribution Model
The calculator uses the Poisson distribution, a mathematical model widely used in football analytics. Given a team's average goals per game (lambda), we calculate the probability of scoring zero goals: P(0) = e^(-lambda). The probability of scoring at least one goal is then 1 - P(0).
Hybrid Approach with Clean Sheets
Pure Poisson modelling does not account for defensive quality. Our calculator uses a hybrid approach that blends the Poisson-based scoring probability (weighted 60%) with the opponent's clean sheet record (weighted 40%). This produces more accurate real-world predictions by incorporating defensive strength data.
BTTS Probability Calculation
The final BTTS Yes probability is the product of both teams' individual scoring probabilities. If the home team has a 78% chance of scoring and the away team has a 65% chance, the BTTS Yes probability is 78% x 65% = 50.7%.
Fair Odds and Value Assessment
Fair odds are calculated as 1 / probability. If the bookmaker's odds are higher than the fair odds, the bet has positive expected value — meaning you have found a value bet. The calculator highlights these opportunities automatically when you enter bookmaker odds.
How to Find Team Statistics
Goals Per Game
Find each team's average goals scored per match from league tables or statistics sites. Use the current season's data for the most relevant figures. Consider using home-only or away-only stats for greater accuracy.
Clean Sheet Percentage
This is the percentage of matches where a team concedes zero goals. Check team statistics pages on football data sites. A team keeping clean sheets in 40% of matches has a clean sheet percentage of 40.
Sample Size
Use at least 10 matches of data for meaningful results. Early-season stats from just 3-4 matches are less reliable. Consider the last 10-15 matches for a balance of relevance and sample size.
Home vs Away Splits
Teams often perform differently at home and away. For the most accurate results, use the home team's home stats and the away team's away stats rather than overall season averages.
BTTS Strategy Tips
Focus on Attacking Teams
Matches between two teams averaging 1.5+ goals per game are prime BTTS Yes candidates. Both sides create chances, making it likely both will score.
Check Clean Sheet Records
Teams with low clean sheet percentages (below 25%) are poor at keeping opponents out. When two defensively weak teams meet, BTTS Yes is strongly favoured.
Look for Value, Not Just Probability
A high BTTS probability does not automatically mean a good bet. Always compare fair odds to bookmaker odds. Only back BTTS when the bookmaker is offering odds above your calculated fair price.
Consider League Trends
Some leagues have higher BTTS rates than others. The Eredivisie and Bundesliga historically see more goals than Serie A or Ligue 1. Factor in league-specific scoring patterns.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does BTTS mean in football betting?
BTTS stands for Both Teams to Score. It is a betting market where you predict whether both teams will score at least one goal during the match. BTTS Yes wins if both teams score; BTTS No wins if at least one team fails to score.
How accurate is the BTTS calculator?
The calculator uses a mathematically sound Poisson distribution model combined with real clean sheet data. Accuracy depends on the quality of your input data. Using current-season statistics from at least 10 matches produces the most reliable results.
What is a good BTTS probability for betting?
There is no single threshold. What matters is whether the bookmaker's odds offer value. A 55% BTTS probability with fair odds of 1.82 is a good bet if the bookmaker offers 2.00 or higher, but not if they only offer 1.70.
Does BTTS include extra time?
No. Standard BTTS bets only cover the 90 minutes of regular time plus injury time. Goals scored in extra time or penalty shootouts do not count unless the bookmaker specifically states otherwise.
What is a value bet in BTTS?
A value bet occurs when the bookmaker's odds are higher than the fair odds based on your probability estimate. For example, if you calculate a 60% BTTS Yes probability (fair odds 1.67) and the bookmaker offers 1.85, you have found a value bet with a positive expected edge.
Why does the calculator use clean sheet percentages?
Clean sheet percentages capture defensive quality that goals-per-game alone cannot. A team that scores 2 goals per game on average might struggle against a team that keeps clean sheets 50% of the time. The hybrid approach produces more nuanced predictions.
Should I use home/away splits or overall stats?
Home and away splits are more accurate because teams perform differently in different environments. Home teams typically score more and concede less. Use home stats for the home team and away stats for the away team for the best results.
Can I combine BTTS with other markets?
Yes. BTTS is commonly combined with match result (e.g., Home Win & BTTS Yes) or over/under goals (e.g., Over 2.5 & BTTS Yes) in accumulator bets. However, combining markets increases variance, so ensure each selection offers individual value.
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